2026-04-03T05:22:43.412318+00:00
/shared/toss_kospi/backtest_candle_1520/shared/inference_kospi/cs_mlp_200_base_parquet| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total PnL | -3.637M |
| Return per Unit Volume | -8.15bp |
| Beta (Dynamic) | -7.430M |
| Alpha (Dynamic) | 3.793M |
| Alpha Return per Unit Volume | 8.51bp |
| Sharpe (Annualized) | -0.6564 |
| Alpha Sharpe (Annualized) | 1.6687 |
| Trades | 2,415 |
| Daily Trade Notional | 120.527M |
| Trading Days | 37 |
| Total Fee | 4.460M |
| Avg Position Notional | 53.829M |
| ROI (Avg Position) | -6.76% |
| ROI (Peak Position) | -3.54% |
| Max Drawdown | -15.138M |
| Model Win Rate (120m) | 49.74% |
| Hedge Win Rate (120m) | 41.52% |
source: not_found
| param | value |
|---|---|
| active_minutes_ratio | 0.5 |
| confidence_median_adjust_multiplier | 1 |
| force_hedge_timeout_window | 300 |
| force_taker_start_hhmm | 1540 |
| hedge_max_amount_krw | 2.5e+06 |
| hedge_pred_threshold | 1.5 |
| hedge_slippage | 0 |
| high_speed | 1 |
| model_slippage | 0 |
| one_coin_max_neg_position_krw | 0 |
| one_coin_max_pos_position_krw | 2.5e+06 |
| position_close_timeout_minutes | 120 |
| pred_sma_len | 1 |
| total_max_abs_position_krw | 1e+08 |
| trade_end_hhmm | 1520 |
| trade_start_hhmm | 905 |
| z_score_threshold | 2.5 |
| z_score_time_window | 120 |
quality = side_sign * (mid_price(next_n_bars) - execution_price) / execution_price - (fee / notional)
quality_btc_adj = quality - side_sign * ((btc_mid(t+n) - btc_mid(t)) / btc_mid(t))
quality_per_notional_bp = quality_per_notional * 10000
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1568 | -3.38491e+06 | -0.00119486 | -11.9486 | 0.419643 | -0.00653854 | -0.000390638 | 0.00206513 | -3.38491e+06 | -0.00119486 | -11.9486 | 0.419643 |
| 10 | 1566 | -4.72773e+06 | -0.0016716 | -16.716 | 0.416347 | -0.00392854 | -0.000982295 | 0.00048181 | -4.72773e+06 | -0.0016716 | -16.716 | 0.416347 |
| 20 | 1566 | -4.96451e+06 | -0.00175532 | -17.5532 | 0.444444 | -0.021234 | 0.000485384 | 0.00730486 | -4.96451e+06 | -0.00175532 | -17.5532 | 0.444444 |
| 30 | 1561 | -3.85033e+06 | -0.00136339 | -13.6339 | 0.44843 | -0.00458447 | -0.000828594 | 0.00024249 | -3.85033e+06 | -0.00136339 | -13.6339 | 0.44843 |
| 60 | 1552 | -2.66772e+06 | -0.000950484 | -9.50484 | 0.481959 | -0.016671 | 0.000680942 | 0.00189561 | -2.66772e+06 | -0.000950484 | -9.50484 | 0.481959 |
| 120 | 1534 | 2.62979e+06 | 0.000948466 | 9.48466 | 0.497392 | 0.0949925 | -0.00939521 | 0.0345705 | 2.62979e+06 | 0.000948466 | 9.48466 | 0.497392 |
| 240 | 1511 | 1.83516e+06 | 0.000667003 | 6.67003 | 0.475182 | 0.0880069 | -0.00866361 | 0.0157984 | 1.83516e+06 | 0.000667003 | 6.67003 | 0.475182 |
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 847 | -1.71939e+06 | -0.00105704 | -10.5704 | 0.395514 | -0.00323372 | -0.000940993 | 0.00235257 | -1.71939e+06 | -0.00105704 | -10.5704 | 0.395514 |
| 10 | 846 | -2.1282e+06 | -0.00131025 | -13.1025 | 0.414894 | -0.00156452 | -0.00113818 | 0.000297395 | -2.1282e+06 | -0.00131025 | -13.1025 | 0.414894 |
| 20 | 844 | -1.51052e+06 | -0.000931276 | -9.31276 | 0.446682 | -0.0177591 | -0.000473458 | 0.019317 | -1.51052e+06 | -0.000931276 | -9.31276 | 0.446682 |
| 30 | 844 | -1.48324e+06 | -0.000914457 | -9.14457 | 0.446682 | -0.0248362 | -0.000285237 | 0.0209175 | -1.48324e+06 | -0.000914457 | -9.14457 | 0.446682 |
| 60 | 840 | -2.69511e+06 | -0.00166693 | -16.6693 | 0.464286 | -0.021118 | -0.00106298 | 0.00985996 | -2.69511e+06 | -0.00166693 | -16.6693 | 0.464286 |
| 120 | 831 | -8.2384e+06 | -0.00513513 | -51.3513 | 0.415162 | 0.123827 | -0.00786658 | 0.125623 | -8.2384e+06 | -0.00513513 | -51.3513 | 0.415162 |
| 240 | 801 | -7.31948e+06 | -0.00468377 | -46.8377 | 0.451935 | 0.13023 | -0.00823064 | 0.0912107 | -7.31948e+06 | -0.00468377 | -46.8377 | 0.451935 |
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 30 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 60 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 120 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 240 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
quality_120m_mean_bp = quality_120m_mean * 10000, total_amount = sum(abs(amount))
| entry_time_bucket | trade_count | total_amount | quality_120m_mean | quality_120m_mean_bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 15 | 656 | -0.00785356 | -78.5356 |
| 09:20 | 51 | 1523 | 0.000803014 | 8.03014 |
| 09:40 | 87 | 3345 | 0.000922186 | 9.22186 |
| 10:00 | 71 | 4529 | -0.00496104 | -49.6104 |
| 10:20 | 115 | 5154 | -0.00108364 | -10.8364 |
| 10:40 | 96 | 2657 | 0.00146373 | 14.6373 |
| 11:00 | 92 | 3763 | 0.00136804 | 13.6804 |
| 11:20 | 53 | 2713 | -0.00352298 | -35.2298 |
| 11:40 | 56 | 4100 | -0.00335048 | -33.5048 |
| 12:00 | 51 | 1796 | 0.00567758 | 56.7758 |
| 12:20 | 70 | 2929 | 0.00523682 | 52.3682 |
| 12:40 | 47 | 2249 | 0.00453428 | 45.3428 |
| 13:00 | 50 | 2196 | -0.000436997 | -4.36997 |
| 13:20 | 71 | 3814 | -0.00409021 | -40.9021 |
| 13:40 | 96 | 4260 | 0.00163975 | 16.3975 |
| 14:00 | 118 | 5809 | 0.0065601 | 65.601 |
| 14:20 | 52 | 2222 | -0.000564845 | -5.64845 |
| 14:40 | 45 | 1208 | 0.00707768 | 70.7768 |
| 15:00 | 26 | 739 | 0.00917004 | 91.7004 |
| 15:20 | 0 | 0 |
Intraday periodicity in total notional position: inference tail asymmetry & rolling z-score window effects
| Hour | data σ | pool σ | amp (d/p) | Buy sig% | Sell sig% | B/S ratio | pos >3σ% | neg >3σ% | pos/neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 0.0802 | 0.0943 | 0.850 | 0.329% | 0.452% | 0.73 | 0.332% | 0.475% | 0.70 |
| 10:00 | 0.1002 | 0.0865 | 1.158 | 1.126% | 1.925% | 0.58 | 0.192% | 0.455% | 0.42 |
| 11:00 | 0.1097 | 0.0980 | 1.119 | 1.126% | 1.645% | 0.68 | 0.221% | 0.279% | 0.79 |
| 12:00 | 0.1085 | 0.1074 | 1.011 | 0.705% | 0.833% | 0.85 | 0.247% | 0.234% | 1.06 |
| 13:00 | 0.1026 | 0.1074 | 0.955 | 0.522% | 0.754% | 0.69 | 0.253% | 0.502% | 0.50 |
| 14:00 | 0.1037 | 0.1053 | 0.984 | 0.606% | 1.108% | 0.55 | 0.361% | 0.729% | 0.49 |
| 15:00 | 0.0907 | 0.1030 | 0.881 | 0.369% | 0.919% | 0.40 | 0.311% | 0.855% | 0.36 |
Notes:
z_score_threshold = 2.500, z_score_time_window = 120 bars, coins = 200
data σ = model_pred cross-sectional std at that hour
pool σ = rolling shared window std (z-score denominator)
amp = data σ / pool σ (>1 → z-scores inflated, <1 → suppressed)
B/S ratio = buy signal / sell signal (>1 → net long entry dominant)
pos/neg >3σ = raw model_pred tail asymmetry before z-score transformation