2026-04-03T11:16:15.336778+00:00
/data/krx/parquet/shared/toss_kospi/backtest_candle_1520/shared/inference_kospi/cs_mlp_200_base_parquet| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total PnL | -11.517M |
| Return per Unit Volume | -29.98bp |
| Beta (Dynamic) | -7.043M |
| Alpha (Dynamic) | -4.474M |
| Alpha Return per Unit Volume | -11.65bp |
| Sharpe (Annualized) | -2.4108 |
| Alpha Sharpe (Annualized) | -3.0573 |
| Trades | 5,889 |
| Daily Trade Notional | 153.659M |
| Trading Days | 25 |
| Total Fee | 3.841M |
| Avg Position Notional | 76.590M |
| ROI (Avg Position) | -15.04% |
| ROI (Peak Position) | -11.18% |
| Max Drawdown | -20.427M |
| Model Win Rate (120m) | 46.04% |
| Hedge Win Rate (120m) | 44.89% |
source: not_found
| param | value |
|---|---|
| confidence_median_adjust_multiplier | 1 |
| force_hedge_timeout_bars | 300 |
| force_order_ttl_ms | 60000 |
| force_taker_start_hhmm | 1540 |
| hedge_max_amount_krw | 2.5e+06 |
| hedge_order_ttl_ms | 60000 |
| hedge_pred_threshold | 1.5 |
| hedge_slippage | 0 |
| high_speed | 1 |
| model_order_ttl_ms | 60000 |
| model_slippage | 0 |
| one_coin_max_neg_position_krw | 0 |
| one_coin_max_pos_position_krw | 2.5e+06 |
| position_close_timeout_bars | 120 |
| pred_sma_len | 1 |
| total_max_abs_position_krw | 1e+08 |
| trade_end_hhmm | 1520 |
| trade_start_hhmm | 905 |
| z_score_threshold | 2.5 |
| z_score_time_window | 120 |
quality = side_sign * (mid_price(next_n_bars) - execution_price) / execution_price - (fee / notional)
quality_btc_adj = quality - side_sign * ((btc_mid(t+n) - btc_mid(t)) / btc_mid(t))
quality_per_notional_bp = quality_per_notional * 10000
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3571 | -3.89873e+06 | -0.00162652 | -16.2652 | 0.373005 | -0.0114791 | -0.00069177 | 0.0142255 | -3.89873e+06 | -0.00162652 | -16.2652 | 0.373005 |
| 10 | 3570 | -4.59039e+06 | -0.00191508 | -19.1508 | 0.394958 | -0.00817359 | -0.000936916 | 0.00356852 | -4.59039e+06 | -0.00191508 | -19.1508 | 0.394958 |
| 20 | 3560 | -4.58989e+06 | -0.00191799 | -19.1799 | 0.421348 | -0.0154694 | -0.000746182 | 0.00734209 | -4.58989e+06 | -0.00191799 | -19.1799 | 0.421348 |
| 30 | 3559 | -4.04985e+06 | -0.00169256 | -16.9256 | 0.432987 | -0.0119215 | -0.000994444 | 0.00289261 | -4.04985e+06 | -0.00169256 | -16.9256 | 0.432987 |
| 60 | 3549 | -2.53702e+06 | -0.00106249 | -10.6249 | 0.442942 | -0.0254932 | -2.89427e-05 | 0.00846075 | -2.53702e+06 | -0.00106249 | -10.6249 | 0.442942 |
| 120 | 3538 | 2.10742e+06 | 0.000886382 | 8.86382 | 0.46043 | 0.0577938 | -0.00481678 | 0.0205994 | 2.10742e+06 | 0.000886382 | 8.86382 | 0.46043 |
| 240 | 3517 | -481595 | -0.000203552 | -2.03552 | 0.437589 | 0.0246054 | -0.0033543 | 0.0016359 | -481595 | -0.000203552 | -2.03552 | 0.437589 |
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2318 | -2.24759e+06 | -0.00155596 | -15.5596 | 0.330026 | -0.00353985 | -0.0014239 | 0.00240809 | -2.24759e+06 | -0.00155596 | -15.5596 | 0.330026 |
| 10 | 2318 | -2.62198e+06 | -0.00181515 | -18.1515 | 0.371872 | 0.00727441 | -0.00160079 | 0.00469469 | -2.62198e+06 | -0.00181515 | -18.1515 | 0.371872 |
| 20 | 2304 | -2.49918e+06 | -0.0017363 | -17.363 | 0.420139 | 0.004427 | -0.00171033 | 0.00103068 | -2.49918e+06 | -0.0017363 | -17.363 | 0.420139 |
| 30 | 2303 | -3.08967e+06 | -0.00214666 | -21.4666 | 0.416848 | -0.00145834 | -0.00189153 | 6.49444e-05 | -3.08967e+06 | -0.00214666 | -21.4666 | 0.416848 |
| 60 | 2296 | -3.01488e+06 | -0.00210362 | -21.0362 | 0.439024 | -0.019876 | -0.00128992 | 0.00814883 | -3.01488e+06 | -0.00210362 | -21.0362 | 0.439024 |
| 120 | 2272 | -3.56254e+06 | -0.00251646 | -25.1646 | 0.448944 | 0.0358139 | -0.00186242 | 0.0113853 | -3.56254e+06 | -0.00251646 | -25.1646 | 0.448944 |
| 240 | 2204 | -1.14663e+06 | -0.000838431 | -8.38431 | 0.475953 | 0.0694936 | -0.000199788 | 0.0184831 | -1.14663e+06 | -0.000838431 | -8.38431 | 0.475953 |
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 30 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 60 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 120 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 240 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
quality_120m_mean_bp = quality_120m_mean * 10000, total_amount = sum(abs(amount))
| entry_time_bucket | trade_count | total_amount | quality_120m_mean | quality_120m_mean_bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 24 | 265 | 0.0253095 | 253.095 |
| 09:20 | 96 | 1008 | -0.00287354 | -28.7354 |
| 09:40 | 166 | 2686 | 0.00129911 | 12.9911 |
| 10:00 | 144 | 3035 | -0.00551666 | -55.1666 |
| 10:20 | 259 | 3800 | -0.00157179 | -15.7179 |
| 10:40 | 165 | 1917 | 0.00197018 | 19.7018 |
| 11:00 | 254 | 3867 | -0.000755296 | -7.55296 |
| 11:20 | 106 | 2156 | -0.000545388 | -5.45388 |
| 11:40 | 192 | 3891 | -0.00608744 | -60.8744 |
| 12:00 | 112 | 1309 | 0.00956407 | 95.6407 |
| 12:20 | 134 | 1994 | 0.000726386 | 7.26386 |
| 12:40 | 113 | 2743 | 0.00656124 | 65.6124 |
| 13:00 | 157 | 2524 | -0.00203181 | -20.3181 |
| 13:20 | 174 | 2884 | -0.0071247 | -71.247 |
| 13:40 | 243 | 3873 | -0.00926007 | -92.6007 |
| 14:00 | 231 | 4435 | 0.00311608 | 31.1608 |
| 14:20 | 154 | 2211 | -0.0120216 | -120.216 |
| 14:40 | 67 | 1083 | -0.00729325 | -72.9325 |
| 15:00 | 52 | 527 | 0.00917119 | 91.7119 |
| 15:20 | 0 | 0 |
Intraday periodicity in total notional position: inference tail asymmetry & rolling z-score window effects
| Hour | data σ | pool σ | amp (d/p) | Buy sig% | Sell sig% | B/S ratio | pos >3σ% | neg >3σ% | pos/neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 0.0802 | 0.0943 | 0.850 | 0.329% | 0.452% | 0.73 | 0.332% | 0.475% | 0.70 |
| 10:00 | 0.1002 | 0.0865 | 1.158 | 1.126% | 1.925% | 0.58 | 0.192% | 0.455% | 0.42 |
| 11:00 | 0.1097 | 0.0980 | 1.119 | 1.126% | 1.645% | 0.68 | 0.221% | 0.279% | 0.79 |
| 12:00 | 0.1085 | 0.1074 | 1.011 | 0.705% | 0.833% | 0.85 | 0.247% | 0.234% | 1.06 |
| 13:00 | 0.1026 | 0.1074 | 0.955 | 0.522% | 0.754% | 0.69 | 0.253% | 0.502% | 0.50 |
| 14:00 | 0.1037 | 0.1053 | 0.984 | 0.606% | 1.108% | 0.55 | 0.361% | 0.729% | 0.49 |
| 15:00 | 0.0907 | 0.1030 | 0.881 | 0.369% | 0.919% | 0.40 | 0.311% | 0.855% | 0.36 |
Notes:
z_score_threshold = 2.500, z_score_time_window = 120 bars, coins = 200
data σ = model_pred cross-sectional std at that hour
pool σ = rolling shared window std (z-score denominator)
amp = data σ / pool σ (>1 → z-scores inflated, <1 → suppressed)
B/S ratio = buy signal / sell signal (>1 → net long entry dominant)
pos/neg >3σ = raw model_pred tail asymmetry before z-score transformation