2026-04-02T03:28:47.271705+00:00
/shared/toss_kospi/backtest_candle_1520/shared/inference_kospi/cs_mlp_200_base_20260401| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total PnL | -1.113M |
| Return per Unit Volume | -11.97bp |
| Beta (Dynamic) | -1.032M |
| Alpha (Dynamic) | -0.080M |
| Alpha Return per Unit Volume | -0.86bp |
| Sharpe (Annualized) | -1.4922 |
| Alpha Sharpe (Annualized) | -0.1774 |
| Trades | 388 |
| Daily Trade Notional | 58.107M |
| Trading Days | 16 |
| Total Fee | 0.930M |
| Avg Position Notional | 18.631M |
| ROI (Avg Position) | -5.97% |
| ROI (Peak Position) | -1.80% |
| Max Drawdown | -4.176M |
| Model Win Rate (120m) | 48.10% |
| Hedge Win Rate (120m) | 46.63% |
source: not_found
| param | value |
|---|---|
| active_minutes_ratio | 0.5 |
| confidence_median_adjust_multiplier | 1 |
| force_hedge_timeout_window | 300 |
| force_taker_start_hhmm | 1540 |
| hedge_max_amount_krw | 2.5e+06 |
| hedge_pred_threshold | 1.5 |
| hedge_slippage | 0 |
| high_speed | 1 |
| model_slippage | 0 |
| one_coin_max_neg_position_krw | 0 |
| one_coin_max_pos_position_krw | 2.5e+06 |
| position_close_timeout_minutes | 120 |
| pred_sma_len | 1 |
| total_max_abs_position_krw | 1e+08 |
| trade_end_hhmm | 1520 |
| trade_start_hhmm | 905 |
| z_score_threshold | 3.5 |
| z_score_time_window | 120 |
quality = side_sign * (mid_price(next_n_bars) - execution_price) / execution_price - (fee / notional)
quality_btc_adj = quality - side_sign * ((btc_mid(t+n) - btc_mid(t)) / btc_mid(t))
quality_per_notional_bp = quality_per_notional * 10000
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 210 | -154376 | -0.000310619 | -3.10619 | 0.466667 | 0.000172914 | -0.000131472 | 1.56712e-06 | -154376 | -0.000310619 | -3.10619 | 0.466667 |
| 10 | 210 | -257100 | -0.000517313 | -5.17313 | 0.47619 | 0.00307974 | -0.000673433 | 0.000245745 | -257100 | -0.000517313 | -5.17313 | 0.47619 |
| 20 | 210 | -141290 | -0.000284291 | -2.84291 | 0.490476 | 0.0286482 | -0.0029593 | 0.0131562 | -141290 | -0.000284291 | -2.84291 | 0.490476 |
| 30 | 210 | 405814 | 0.00081654 | 8.1654 | 0.552381 | 0.0370456 | -0.00270904 | 0.0145937 | 405814 | 0.00081654 | 8.1654 | 0.552381 |
| 60 | 210 | 904554 | 0.00182006 | 18.2006 | 0.542857 | 0.11293 | -0.00986997 | 0.0659356 | 904554 | 0.00182006 | 18.2006 | 0.542857 |
| 120 | 210 | -107887 | -0.000217079 | -2.17079 | 0.480952 | 0.18123 | -0.0189887 | 0.0887201 | -107887 | -0.000217079 | -2.17079 | 0.480952 |
| 240 | 210 | 36810.5 | 7.40665e-05 | 0.740665 | 0.47619 | 0.240477 | -0.0253501 | 0.0813166 | 36810.5 | 7.40665e-05 | 0.740665 | 0.47619 |
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 178 | -110400 | -0.00025513 | -2.5513 | 0.44382 | 0.00589539 | -0.000478738 | 0.00514663 | -110400 | -0.00025513 | -2.5513 | 0.44382 |
| 10 | 178 | 116401 | 0.000268999 | 2.68999 | 0.550562 | 0.0125436 | -0.000217623 | 0.0153975 | 116401 | 0.000268999 | 2.68999 | 0.550562 |
| 20 | 178 | 155520 | 0.000359402 | 3.59402 | 0.516854 | 0.0108978 | -3.33996e-05 | 0.00414154 | 155520 | 0.000359402 | 3.59402 | 0.516854 |
| 30 | 178 | 78416.3 | 0.000181217 | 1.81217 | 0.533708 | -0.00463052 | 0.000352616 | 0.000467594 | 78416.3 | 0.000181217 | 1.81217 | 0.533708 |
| 60 | 178 | -1.05246e+06 | -0.00243219 | -24.3219 | 0.488764 | 0.0281807 | -0.00334901 | 0.00480604 | -1.05246e+06 | -0.00243219 | -24.3219 | 0.488764 |
| 120 | 178 | -2.14815e+06 | -0.00496431 | -49.6431 | 0.466292 | 0.00572515 | -0.00509869 | 0.000127937 | -2.14815e+06 | -0.00496431 | -49.6431 | 0.466292 |
| 240 | 170 | -74319.1 | -0.000179783 | -1.79783 | 0.494118 | 0.0245678 | -0.000863617 | 0.00117066 | -74319.1 | -0.000179783 | -1.79783 | 0.494118 |
| n_min | pair_count | quality_pnl_final | quality_per_notional | quality_per_notional_bp | win_rate | reg_a | reg_b | reg_r2 | quality_btc_adj_pnl_final | quality_btc_adj_per_notional | quality_btc_adj_per_notional_bp | win_rate_btc_adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 30 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 60 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 120 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 240 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
quality_120m_mean_bp = quality_120m_mean * 10000, total_amount = sum(abs(amount))
| entry_time_bucket | trade_count | total_amount | quality_120m_mean | quality_120m_mean_bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 09:20 | 6 | 132 | 0.00447852 | 44.7852 |
| 09:40 | 12 | 447 | 0.0132479 | 132.479 |
| 10:00 | 5 | 93 | -0.013566 | -135.66 |
| 10:20 | 5 | 652 | -0.00650652 | -65.0652 |
| 10:40 | 16 | 1305 | -0.000393726 | -3.93726 |
| 11:00 | 23 | 1737 | 0.00192315 | 19.2315 |
| 11:20 | 16 | 1017 | -0.00171787 | -17.1787 |
| 11:40 | 13 | 1143 | -0.00154157 | -15.4157 |
| 12:00 | 7 | 461 | 0.0269081 | 269.081 |
| 12:20 | 11 | 455 | 0.00244621 | 24.4621 |
| 12:40 | 5 | 67 | 0.00713683 | 71.3683 |
| 13:00 | 8 | 198 | 0.00196072 | 19.6072 |
| 13:20 | 10 | 742 | -0.0070639 | -70.639 |
| 13:40 | 18 | 1268 | -0.0198466 | -198.466 |
| 14:00 | 21 | 1840 | 0.000684103 | 6.84103 |
| 14:20 | 18 | 887 | 0.00435276 | 43.5276 |
| 14:40 | 4 | 181 | 0.000786355 | 7.86355 |
| 15:00 | 3 | 271 | 0.0184491 | 184.491 |
| 15:20 | 0 | 0 |
Intraday periodicity in total notional position: inference tail asymmetry & rolling z-score window effects
| Hour | data σ | pool σ | amp (d/p) | Buy sig% | Sell sig% | B/S ratio | pos >3σ% | neg >3σ% | pos/neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 0.0802 | 0.0943 | 0.850 | 0.026% | 0.053% | 0.49 | 0.332% | 0.475% | 0.70 |
| 10:00 | 0.1002 | 0.0865 | 1.158 | 0.121% | 0.349% | 0.35 | 0.193% | 0.455% | 0.42 |
| 11:00 | 0.1097 | 0.0980 | 1.119 | 0.098% | 0.205% | 0.48 | 0.221% | 0.278% | 0.79 |
| 12:00 | 0.1085 | 0.1073 | 1.011 | 0.059% | 0.054% | 1.10 | 0.247% | 0.234% | 1.06 |
| 13:00 | 0.1026 | 0.1074 | 0.955 | 0.075% | 0.165% | 0.45 | 0.253% | 0.502% | 0.50 |
| 14:00 | 0.1037 | 0.1053 | 0.984 | 0.135% | 0.325% | 0.42 | 0.361% | 0.729% | 0.50 |
| 15:00 | 0.0907 | 0.1030 | 0.881 | 0.069% | 0.275% | 0.25 | 0.311% | 0.854% | 0.36 |
Notes:
z_score_threshold = 3.500, z_score_time_window = 120 bars, coins = 200
data σ = model_pred cross-sectional std at that hour
pool σ = rolling shared window std (z-score denominator)
amp = data σ / pool σ (>1 → z-scores inflated, <1 → suppressed)
B/S ratio = buy signal / sell signal (>1 → net long entry dominant)
pos/neg >3σ = raw model_pred tail asymmetry before z-score transformation